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The Centre for the Study of Living Standards is a non-profit, national, independent organization that seeks to contribute to a better understanding of trends in and determinants of productivity, living standards and economic and social well-being through research.
Announcements & Recent Releases
On August 21, 2018
the Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) released the report
“Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2017-2038: An Update.”
This report updates economic projections for Canada and the provinces from a CSLS 2015 study (Drummond and Capeluck, 2015)
with new data from 2015, 2016 and 2017. The CSLS projections are based on a supply-side methodology where potential real
output growth is determined by trend labour productivity growth and potential labour supply growth, expressed in terms
of total hours. The CSLS currently projects real output growth of 1.6 per cent per year for Canada for the 2017-2038 period,
based on labour productivity growth of 1.0 per cent and labour input growth of 0.6 per cent. For Ontario, the CSLS projects
real output growth of 1.5 per cent based on 0.9 per cent labour productivity growth and 0.6 per cent for labour input growth.
In both cases, the CSLS projections are less rosy than other forecasters due to more pessimistic outlook for labour productivity growth.
After robust growth in ICT investment in Canada and the United States during the 1980s and 1990s,
growth in ICT investment started to slow after 2000 and its share in GDP entered a downward trajectory.
To explain this trend, we focus on two facets of the changing ICT spending pattern driven by the rise
in cloud computing starting in the mid-2000s. Instead of investing in ICT capital goods, organizations
now purchase cloud services from cloud service providers that appear to be more efficient in producing
computing services. Second, cloud service providers undertake substantial own-account investment in
ICT equipment which is not counted in official statistics. We find that spending on cloud services
in both Canada and the United States rose substantially from the mid-2000s. Also, adding own-account
ICT equipment investment by cloud service providers results in additional 1.7 percentage-points
in annual growth for nominal ICT investment in Canada and additional 1.1 percentage-points in the United States.
It is well known that there has been a secular decline in the manufacturing
share of total employment in Canada, with the decline accelerating after 2000.
Among the factors that contributed to that trend, this report focuses on rising
Chinese import competition in Canada, which also accelerated after 2000.
We find that the trade-induced job loss in manufacturing amounts to 113.5 thousand
during the 2001-2011 period but the loss was not equally distributed across skill groups.
We estimate that the loss was largely driven by: low-skilled occupations (89.8 thousand) when analyzed by skill level;
and occupations in services (57.6 thousand), technical/paraprofessional (12.1 thousand), and production (51.8 thousand)
when analyzed by skill type. A trade-induced job loss in manufacturing is also estimated by gender.
We find that females had a larger loss than males did in relative terms in all skill groups.
Lastly, the labour reallocation in response to a trade shock is found to be important in offsetting
the negative employment effect, but the degree of reallocation varies across skill groups and genders.
On August 10, 2018, the CSLS released a report entitled “Indigenous Recruitment, Retention, and Community Outreach in the Canadian Natural Resource Sector.” This report contributes to the literature on best practices for corporate engagement with Indigenous stakeholders, with an emphasis on hiring practices, workplace culture, and community engagement in the Canadian natural resource industry. The report summarizes relevant research and highlights key examples to demonstrate that respectful consultation and relationship-building can lead to mutually-beneficial outcomes for resource companies and Indigenous communities.
On June 28, 2018, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) released the Spring 2018 issue of its flagship publication, the International Productivity Monitor. TThe issue features seven articles on a range of productivity-related topics: the potential gains from more competitive regulatory settings for real per capita GDP growth in Canada; the role of capital measurement issues in accounting for slower productivity growth in Canada; the achievement of productivity lift-off in New Zealand; the productivity implication of a country’s position within Global Value Chains; explanations for the U.S. productivity slowdown; cyclical versus trend slowdowns in productivity growth; and the rise of the intangible economy. The key findings of the articles are highlighted in the editor's overview. A press release is available for this issue.
The Centre for the Study of Living Standards has organized seven sessions for this year's Canadian Economic Association Annual Conference at McGill University in Montréal, Québec from June 1 to June 3, 2018. The titles of the CSLS sessions are:
CSLS-CD Howe Institute Joint Session on Indigenous Issues
CSLS-Productivity Partnership Session Explaining Canada’s Post-2000 Productivity Performance II: The Role of Technology
CSLS-Banque de France The Impact of Digital Technology, Credit Constraints, and Financial Frictions on Productivity
CSLS-Productivity Partnership Panel Explaining Canada’s Post-2000 Productivity Performance III: Can the Productivity Slowdown be Reversed and If So, How?
CSLS-PEF-Productivity Partnership “Boosting Employment and Productivity by Addressing the Labour Market Challenges of Individuals with Disabilities”
A full program of the Centre's sessions can be found here.
Details about the CEA 52nd Annual Conference can be found on the CEA website.
On December 19, 2017, the CSLS released a report entitled “The Contribution of Métis to Future Labour Force Growth in Canada” by Andrew Sharpe and Myeongwan Kim. The report, like previous work of the CSLS on Aboriginal people and labour force growth, advances the debate on the role of Aboriginal people for Canadian long-term economic growth by projecting the contribution of Métis people to future labour force growth in Canada as a whole and by region under various projection scenarios. In their baseline scenario over the 2011-2036 period, the Métis people is projected to account for 6.4 per cent of total labour force growth.
On November 14, 2017, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) released a special issue of its flagship publication, the International Productivity Monitor, guest edited by Dale Jorgenson of Harvard University and founder of the World KLEMS Initiative. The issue is based on selected papers from the Fourth World KLEMS Conference held in Madrid in May 2016. The issue contains nine articles featuring the most recent research on productivity trends throughout the world. Topics addressed include: a comparison of productivity growth in China and India, the implications of the move to ICT services for the impact of ICT technologies on productivity, new estimates of human capital for the United States, productivity developments in Latin America, and sectoral developments in productivity performance in EU countries. The key findings of the articles are highlighted in the introduction by Dale Jorgenson.
On November 7, 2017, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, in collaboration with the Productivity Partnerships, issued a call for papers for the conference “Explaining Canada’s Post-2000 Productivity Performance” to be held in association with the annual meeting of the Canadian Economics Association, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec June 1-3, 2018. Details on the motivation for the conference, the issues on which papers are sought, and the submission procedures are found in the call for papers. The deadline for proposals is February 2, 2018.
On October 2, 2017 the Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) released a report entitled "The Contribution of Aboriginal People to Future Labour Force Growth in Canada" by Don Drummond, Alexander Murray, Nicolas Mask and Andrew Sharpe. The report contributes to the debate on closing socio-economic gaps between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people by projecting the contribution of Aboriginal people to future labour force growth in Canada as a whole and by region under various scenarios over the 2011-2036 period. It finds that up to one fifth of future labour force growth in this country may come from the Aboriginal population.
A press release and an op-ed by Don Drummond and Andrew Sharpe are available for this report.
Articles from the Globe and Mail and the Winnipeg Free Press are also available for this report.
On August 31, 2017, the CSLS released a report entitled "The Human Development Index in Canada: Ranking the Provinces and Territories Internationally, 2000-2015: An Update." This report provides internationally comparable estimates of the Human Development Index (HDI) for the Canadian provinces and territories from 2000 to 2015. The report explores a wide variation in the quality of life enjoyed by Canadians. It shows that while residents of Alberta and Ontario enjoy a quality of life similar to that of Singapore or Denmark, residents of Nunavut face a quality of life similar to that of Latvia or Argentina. A press release is available for this report.
On August 30, 2017, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards released a report entitled “What Explains the Post-2004 U.S. Productivity Slowdown.” The average annual rate of U.S. business sector labour productivity growth declined by 1.9 percentage points between the 1995-2004 period and the 2004-2015 period, from 3.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent. This report summarizes the state of knowledge on the causes of this development. Two thirds of the slowdown is accounted for by a decline in total factor productivity growth, while one third by a decline in the rate of capital deepening (i.e. growth of capital per hour worked). Three industries, collectively representing 28 per cent of business-sector hours worked in 2015, account for over 80 per cent of the aggregate labour productivity decline: manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade.
On July 18, 2017, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards released a report entitled “The Inclusion of Natural Resource Wealth in
the Index of Economic Well-Being: Results for OECD Countries, 1980-2013” The objective of the report is to present augmented estimates of the Index of Economic Well-being (IEWB) for 14 OECD countries for the 1980-2013 period. The new estimates account for the inclusion of an
internationally comparable measure of natural resource wealth which had been absent from
previous IEWB reports. It finds that in 2013 Norway had the highest level of economic wellbeing
and Spain the lowest. Despite being a resource rich country, Canada ranked eleventh among the fourteen countries for economic well-being.
On July 13, 2017 the CSLS released a study done for Global Affairs Canada entitled “The Effect of Import Competition on Employment in Canada: Evidence from the China Shock.” The federal government has called for a “progressive trade agenda” for Canada, an agenda which responses to the concerns of those harmed by the liberalization of international trade and ensures that trade contributes to broad-based prosperity for all Canadians. The objective of the report is to contribute to the development of such an agenda by measuring the impact on Canadian employment of a recent shock to Canada’s import supply. The report finds that the direct effect of rising Chinese import competition on Canadian manufacturing was a net loss of 105 thousand jobs over the 2001-2011 period, equivalent to 21 per cent of the actual observed decline in manufacturing employment. A press release is available for this issue.
An article of this report is part of the Trade Policy for Uncertain Times special feature of Policy Options magazine.
This report was mentioned in articles from The Globe and Mail, iPOLITICS and The Epoch Times.
Past CSLS Announcements and Releases