Slower Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being in the Canadian Context: A Discussion Paper

Most mainstream forecasts for national economies expect that mature nations such as Canada will experience a few decades of slower economic growth, relative to past rates. This was reflected in the recent long-term forecast for the Canadian economy by the Centre for the Study of Living Standards. This transition is due to underlying demographic factors which are slowing labour force growth as well as slower rates of labour force productivity. Although there is a consensus among forecasters about the inevitability of slower growth there is less consensus about the magnitude of the change. This model suggests that countries such as Canada could enter into a prolonged period of slower growth without pronounced negative consequences for population well-being if other contributors to well-being are both protected and mobilized to offset the impacts of slower income growth. The most serious threat to wellbeing that is associated with the slow-growth scenario is an expected increase in income inequality and household debt. Canada may be particularly vulnerable to these effects because it is entering a slow growth era with relatively high levels of inequality and household debt, relative to most other mature nations.

About the Author Mike Pennock is a population health epidemiologist living and working in Victoria, British Columbia. He is currently employed as the Senior Epidemiologist in the Office of the Provincial Health Officer within the British Columbia Ministry of Health. This paper was written for the Centre for the Study of Living Standards independent of his position with the Ministry and the opinions contained within do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Ministry or the Government of British Columbia.