The New Economy and Trend Productivity Growth in Canada

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Abstract

This article examines why trend labour productivity growth in Canada stagnated in the second half of the 1990s, in contrast to a sharp acceleration in the United States. It identifies five factors behind the U.S. productivity revival — a large high-tech sector, strong IT investment, low unemployment, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and statistical methodological changes — none of which applied equally in Canada. Despite lagging the U.S., the article argues the balance of evidence suggests Canada will experience an acceleration in trend productivity growth to the 2–2.5 per cent range over the following decade, driven by a reversal of the factors that held back productivity growth.

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