Future Productivity Growth in Canada: The Role of the Service Sector

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Abstract

This article examines the role of the service sector — particularly wholesale and retail trade — in driving the productivity resurgence in Canada since 1996. Drawing on aggregate and industry-level evidence for Canada and the United States, it finds that the productivity pick-up in both countries was largely structural and driven by heavy ICT investment in services leading to TFP gains. The article argues that continued growth of the service sector and population ageing will make the service sector an increasingly important determinant of Canada’s long-run productivity performance, and that sustaining the gains depends on the sector’s ability to continue embodying ICT effectively.

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