The China Shock and Innovation and Productivity in Canadian Manufacturing

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Abstract

Using firm-level data for Canadian manufacturing, this article examines the impact of increased Chinese import competition on R&D and TFP. It finds that greater import penetration reduced firm profitability (especially for smaller firms), which decreased R&D expenditure and within-firm TFP growth. However, the exit of smaller, less productive firms had a positive reallocation effect on TFP that more than offset the negative direct effect. The counterfactual estimate suggests that without the increase in Chinese import penetration, TFP growth in Canadian manufacturing would have been 0.2 percentage points per year lower in 2005-2010.

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