--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/research/the-valuation-of-the-alberta-oil-sands/" title: "The Valuation of the Alberta Oil Sands" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-02T13:37:46+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-02T13:37:46+00:00" post_type: "research" summary: "" post_tag: - "Alberta oil sands" - "Canada" - "energy" - "GHG emissions" - "natural resource valuation" - "social cost" - "Statistics Canada" - "wealth" country_focus: - "Canada" province_region: - "AB" research_theme: - "Productivity and Economic Measurement" - "Sector/Industry Analysis" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/old-reports_hero_banner_bg.webp" status: "publish" --- # The Valuation of the Alberta Oil Sands Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/research/the-valuation-of-the-alberta-oil-sands/ # The Valuation of the Alberta Oil Sands [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2008-07.pdf) Cite this report × Cite this report as: Sharpe, Andrew, Jean-François Arsenault, Alexander Murray, and Sharon Qiao. 2008. “The Valuation of the Alberta Oil Sands.” CSLS Research Report 2008-07. Ottawa: Centre for the Study of Living Standards. https://csls.ca/research/the-valuation-of-the-alberta-oil-sands/ ## Authors: - Andrew Sharpe Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) - Jean-François Arsenault Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) - Alexander Murray Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) - Sharon Qiao Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) ## Report 2008-07 November 2008 73 pages ## Related research [Measuring the Appropriate Outcomes for Better Decision-Making: A Framework to Guide the Analysis of Health Policy Matthew Calver March 2016 | Report 2016-03 | 132 pages](https://csls.ca/research/measuring-the-appropriate-outcomes-for-better-decision-making-a-framework-to-guide-the-analysis-of-health-policy-2016-03/) [Living Standards Domain of the Canadian Index of Wellbeing Andrew Sharpe, Christopher Ross November 2011 | Report 2011-17 | 124 pages](https://csls.ca/research/living-standards-domain-of-the-canadian-index-of-wellbeing-2011-17/) [Productivity: Key to Economic Success Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) March 1998 | Report 1998-01 | 99 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-key-to-economic-success/) [New Estimates of Manufacturing Productivity Growth for Canada and the United States Andrew Sharpe March 1999 | Report 1999-02 | 21 pages](https://csls.ca/research/new-estimates-of-manufacturing-productivity-growth-for-canada-and-the-united-states/) [Apprenticeship in Canada: A Training System Under Siege? Andrew Sharpe December 1999 | Report 1999-03 | 59 pages](https://csls.ca/research/apprenticeship-in-canadaa-training-system-under-siege/) [A Survey of Indicators of Economic and Social Well-being Andrew Sharpe July 1999 | Report 1999-cprn | 72 pages](https://csls.ca/research/a-survey-of-indicators-of-economic-and-social-well-being/) [Creating a More Efficient Labour Market Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) June 2001 | Report 2001-02 | 147 pages](https://csls.ca/research/creating-a-more-efficient-labour-market/) [The Impact of the National Child Benefit Supplement on the Low Income Status of Canadian Families with Children: The SPSD/M Results Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) June 2002 | Report 2002-01 | 59 pages](https://csls.ca/research/the-impact-of-the-national-child-benefit-supplement-on-the-low-income-status-of-canadian-families-with-children-the-spsd-m-results/) [Productivity Trends in Natural Resources Industries in Canada Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) February 2003 | Report 2003-01a | 69 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-trends-in-natural-resources-industries-in-canada/) [Productivity in the Forest Products Sector: A Review of the Literature Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) February 2003 | Report 2003-02 | 28 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-in-the-forest-products-sector-a-review-of-the-literature/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn The Alberta oil sands reserves represent a very valuable energy resource for Canadians. In 2007, Statistics Canada valued the oil sands at $342.1 billion, or 5 per cent Canada’s total tangible wealth of $6.9 trillion. Given the oil sands’ importance, it is essential to value them appropriately. In this report, we critically review the methods used by Statistics Canada in their valuation of the Alberta oil sands. We find that the official Statistics Canada estimates of the reserves (22.0 billion barrels) of Alberta’s oil sands are very small compared to those obtained using more appropriate definitions, which results in an underestimation of the true value of the oil sands. Moreover, the failure to take into account the projected growth of the industry significantly magnifies this underestimation. We provide new estimates of the present value of oil sands reserves based on a set of alternative assumptions that are, we argue, more appropriate than those used by Statistic Canada. We find that the use of more reasonable measures of the total oil sands reserves (172.7 billion barrels), extraction rate (a linear increase from 482 million barrels per year in 2007 to 1,350 million barrels in 2015, and constant thereafter) and price ($70 per barrel, 2007 CAD) increases the estimated present value of the oil sands to $1,482.7 billion (2007 CAD), 4.3 times larger than the official estimate of $342.1 billion. Using our preferred estimate, Canada’s total tangible wealth increases by $1.1 trillion (17 per cent), and reaches $8.0 trillion with oil sands now accounting for 18 per cent of Canada’s tangible wealth. The importance of these revisions is also demonstrated by their impact on the per-capita wealth of Canadians, which increases from $209,359 to $243,950, or by $34,591 (or 17 per cent). Given the importance of the oil sands for Canada, Statistics Canada should undertake a review of its methodology. In light of the growing body of climatologic literature supporting an association between anthropogenic GHG emissions and global climate change, no analysis of the ‘true value’ of the oil sands would be complete without an accounting of the social costs of the GHG emissions that arise from oil sands development. According to our baseline estimates, the oil sands impose a total social cost related to GHG emissions of $69.4 billion. In making this estimate, we assume that each barrel of oil sands output imposes a social cost of $2.25 (based on a cost of $30/tCO2-e and an intensity of 0.075 tCO2-e/bbl). Our preferred estimate of the net present value of oil sands wealth net of GHG cost is thus $1,413.3 billion, 4.1 times greater than the Statistics Canada estimate which does not account for any environmental costs. This report does not account for non-GHG related environmental and social costs. A comprehensive valuation of all environmental costs are needed to assess whether future benefits derived from oil sands development are outweighed by even larger environmental costs. Les réserves de sables bitumineux de l’Alberta représentent une ressource énergétique très précieuse pour les Canadiens. En 2007, Statistique Canada évaluait les sables bitumineux à 342,1 milliards de dollars, soit 5 % de la richesse tangible totale du Canada, évaluée à 6,9 billions de dollars. Étant donné l’importance des sables bitumineux, il est essentiel de les évaluer de façon appropriée. Dans ce rapport, nous examinons de façon critique les méthodes utilisées par Statistique Canada pour évaluer les sables bitumineux de l’Alberta. Nous constatons que les estimations officielles de Statistique Canada concernant les réserves (22,0 milliards de barils) des sables bitumineux de l’Alberta sont très faibles par rapport à celles obtenues à l’aide de définitions plus appropriées, ce qui entraîne une sous-estimation de la valeur réelle des sables bitumineux. De plus, l’omission de tenir compte de la croissance prévue de l’industrie amplifie considérablement cette sous-estimation. Nous proposons de nouvelles estimations de la valeur actuelle des réserves de sables bitumineux fondées sur un ensemble d’hypothèses de rechange que nous jugeons plus appropriées que celles utilisées par Statistique Canada. Nous constatons que l’utilisation de mesures plus raisonnables du total des réserves de sables bitumineux (172,7 milliards de barils), du taux d’extraction (une hausse linéaire de 482 millions de barils par année en 2007 à 1 350 millions de barils en 2015, demeurant constant par la suite) et du prix (70 $ le baril, en dollars canadiens de 2007) fait grimper la valeur actuelle estimée des sables bitumineux à 1 482,7 milliards de dollars (en dollars canadiens de 2007), soit 4,3 fois plus élevée que l’estimation officielle. [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2008-07.pdf)