--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/research/the-effect-of-import-competition-on-employment-in-canada-evidence-from-the-china-shock/" title: "The Effect of Import Competition on Employment in Canada: Evidence from the ‘China Shock’" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-02T12:42:03+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-07T07:35:34+00:00" post_type: "research" summary: "" post_tag: - "Canada" - "China shock" - "employment" - "import competition" - "job losses" - "labour market" - "manufacturing" - "trade" country_focus: - "Canada" - "China" province_region: - "National" research_theme: - "Labour Markets" - "Trade" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/old-reports_hero_banner_bg.webp" status: "publish" --- # The Effect of Import Competition on Employment in Canada: Evidence from the ‘China Shock’ Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/research/the-effect-of-import-competition-on-employment-in-canada-evidence-from-the-china-shock/ # The Effect of Import Competition on Employment in Canada: Evidence from the ‘China Shock’ [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2017-03-1.pdf) Cite this report × Cite this report as: Murray, Alexander. 2017. “The Effect of Import Competition on Employment in Canada: Evidence from the ‘China Shock’.” CSLS Research Report 2017-03. Ottawa: Centre for the Study of Living Standards. https://csls.ca/research/the-effect-of-import-competition-on-employment-in-canada-evidence-from-the-china-shock/ ## Author: - Alexander Murray Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) ## Report 2017-03 July 2017 65 pages ## Related research [Closing the First Nations Education Gap in Canada: Assessing Progress and Estimating the Economic Benefits — An Update Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) February 2023 | Report 2023-01 | 101 pages](https://csls.ca/research/closing-the-first-nations-education-gap-in-canada-assessing-progress-and-estimating-the-economic-benefits-an-update-2023-01/) [Measuring the Appropriate Outcomes for Better Decision-Making: A Framework to Guide the Analysis of Health Policy Matthew Calver March 2016 | Report 2016-03 | 132 pages](https://csls.ca/research/measuring-the-appropriate-outcomes-for-better-decision-making-a-framework-to-guide-the-analysis-of-health-policy-2016-03/) [Living Standards Domain of the Canadian Index of Wellbeing Andrew Sharpe, Christopher Ross November 2011 | Report 2011-17 | 124 pages](https://csls.ca/research/living-standards-domain-of-the-canadian-index-of-wellbeing-2011-17/) [Productivity: Key to Economic Success Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) March 1998 | Report 1998-01 | 99 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-key-to-economic-success/) [Apprenticeship in Canada: A Training System Under Siege? Andrew Sharpe December 1999 | Report 1999-03 | 59 pages](https://csls.ca/research/apprenticeship-in-canadaa-training-system-under-siege/) [A Survey of Indicators of Economic and Social Well-being Andrew Sharpe July 1999 | Report 1999-cprn | 72 pages](https://csls.ca/research/a-survey-of-indicators-of-economic-and-social-well-being/) [A Comparison of Canadian and U.S. Labour Market Performance, 1989-2000 Andrew Sharpe April 2001 | Report 2001-01 | 29 pages](https://csls.ca/research/a-comparison-of-canadian-and-u-s-labour-market-performance-1989-2000/) [Creating a More Efficient Labour Market Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) June 2001 | Report 2001-02 | 147 pages](https://csls.ca/research/creating-a-more-efficient-labour-market/) [The Impact of the National Child Benefit Supplement on the Low Income Status of Canadian Families with Children: The SPSD/M Results Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) June 2002 | Report 2002-01 | 59 pages](https://csls.ca/research/the-impact-of-the-national-child-benefit-supplement-on-the-low-income-status-of-canadian-families-with-children-the-spsd-m-results/) [Productivity Trends in Natural Resources Industries in Canada Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) February 2003 | Report 2003-01a | 69 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-trends-in-natural-resources-industries-in-canada/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn A common view holds that increasing trade with emerging economies in recent decades has harmed the economic prospects of middle-class workers in Western countries like Canada. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the impact on Canadian employment of a recent shock to Canada’s import supply: the rapid rise of China as a manufacturing export superpower in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Using an instrumental variables strategy, we estimate that total job losses from rising Chinese import competition were on the order of 150 to 170 thousand over the 2001-2011 period. Manufacturing industries account for at least 105 thousand of these job losses. This amounts to 21 per cent of the total decline in manufacturing employment over the 2001-2011 period. Une opinion répandue veut que la hausse des échanges commerciaux avec les économies émergentes au cours des dernières décennies ait nui aux perspectives économiques des travailleurs de la classe moyenne dans des pays occidentaux comme le Canada. Dans cet article, nous proposons une évaluation quantitative de l’incidence sur l’emploi canadien d’un choc récent touchant l’offre d’importations du Canada : la montée rapide de la Chine comme superpuissance des exportations manufacturières à la fin des années 1990 et au début des années 2000. À l’aide d’une stratégie de variables instrumentales, nous estimons que les pertes d’emplois totales attribuables à la hausse de la concurrence des importations chinoises se situaient entre 150 000 et 170 000 au cours de la période 2001-2011. Les industries manufacturières représentent au moins 105 000 de ces pertes d’emplois, soit 21 % du déclin total de l’emploi manufacturier durant cette période. [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2017-03-1.pdf)