--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/research/long-term-fiscal-and-economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-and-territories-2014-2038/" title: "Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-02T12:53:03+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-02T12:53:03+00:00" post_type: "research" summary: "" post_tag: - "budgetary balance" - "Canada" - "economic projections" - "fiscal projections" - "health spending" - "labour productivity" - "long-term" - "provinces" - "territories" country_focus: - "Canada" province_region: - "Multi-province" research_theme: - "Fiscal Policy" - "Productivity and Economic Measurement" - "Regional Economic Development" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/old-reports_hero_banner_bg.webp" status: "publish" --- # Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038 Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/research/long-term-fiscal-and-economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-and-territories-2014-2038/ # Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038 [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2015-08-1.pdf) Cite this report × Cite this report as: Drummond, Don, and Evan Capeluck. 2015. “Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038.” CSLS Research Report 2015-08. Ottawa: Centre for the Study of Living Standards. https://csls.ca/research/long-term-fiscal-and-economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-and-territories-2014-2038/ ## Authors: - Don Drummond Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) - Evan Capeluck Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University ## Report 2015-08 July 2015 66 pages ## Related research [Measuring the Appropriate Outcomes for Better Decision-Making: A Framework to Guide the Analysis of Health Policy Matthew Calver March 2016 | Report 2016-03 | 132 pages](https://csls.ca/research/measuring-the-appropriate-outcomes-for-better-decision-making-a-framework-to-guide-the-analysis-of-health-policy-2016-03/) [Living Standards Domain of the Canadian Index of Wellbeing Andrew Sharpe, Christopher Ross November 2011 | Report 2011-17 | 124 pages](https://csls.ca/research/living-standards-domain-of-the-canadian-index-of-wellbeing-2011-17/) [Productivity: Key to Economic Success Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) March 1998 | Report 1998-01 | 99 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-key-to-economic-success/) [Productivity Trends: A Canada-U.S. Comparison Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) January 1999 | Report 1999-01 | 6 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-trends-a-canada-u-s-comparison/) [New Estimates of Manufacturing Productivity Growth for Canada and the United States Andrew Sharpe March 1999 | Report 1999-02 | 21 pages](https://csls.ca/research/new-estimates-of-manufacturing-productivity-growth-for-canada-and-the-united-states/) [Apprenticeship in Canada: A Training System Under Siege? 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The projections are based on assumptions concerning growth in the working age population, the evolution of participation rates and average hours worked, labour productivity growth, and the inflation rate. Since the assumptions underlying the projections are subject to uncertainty, we present a series of alternative scenarios for long-term economic growth in Canada and the provinces and territories. The report also looks at whether provincial/territorial governments will be able to finance public spending under these alternative fiscal and economic scenarios. Under the realistic assumptions that non-health spending is flat in real per capita terms and health spending grows at its average pace from the past 15 years, then, by and large, the provinces and territories will not be able to meet the test of balancing revenue growth with growth in public spending without either raising taxes or cutting program spending. Given the higher probability of this scenario and the relative distaste for higher taxes and spending cuts, Canadian governments must find ways to boost economic growth and hence revenue growth to maintain fiscal balance to 2038 and beyond. Ce rapport présente des projections budgétaires et économiques à long terme pour le Canada, les provinces et les territoires pour la période 2014-2038, et examine leurs répercussions sur l’équilibre budgétaire à l’échelle provinciale et territoriale. Les projections reposent sur des hypothèses concernant la croissance de la population en âge de travailler, l’évolution des taux d’activité et des heures moyennes travaillées, la croissance de la productivité du travail et le taux d’inflation. Étant donné que les hypothèses sous-jacentes aux projections sont incertaines, nous présentons une série de scénarios de rechange pour la croissance économique à long terme du Canada, des provinces et des territoires. Le rapport examine également si les gouvernements provinciaux et territoriaux seront en mesure de financer les dépenses publiques selon ces scénarios budgétaires et économiques de rechange. Selon les hypothèses réalistes voulant que les dépenses hors santé demeurent stables en termes réels par habitant et que les dépenses de santé croissent à leur rythme moyen des 15 dernières années, la plupart des provinces et territoires ne pourront pas concilier la croissance des revenus avec la croissance des dépenses publiques sans hausser les impôts ou réduire les dépenses de programmes. Étant donné la probabilité plus élevée de ce scénario et l’aversion relative envers les hausses d’impôt et les compressions de dépenses, les gouvernements canadiens doivent trouver des moyens de stimuler la croissance économique, et donc la croissance des revenus, afin de maintenir l’équilibre budgétaire d’ici 2038 et au-delà. [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2015-08-1.pdf)