--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/research/economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-2019-2038/" title: "Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces, 2019-2038" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-02T10:13:24+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-02T10:13:24+00:00" post_type: "research" summary: "" post_tag: - "2019-2038" - "Canada" - "economic projections" - "immigration" - "labour productivity" - "population projections" - "provinces" - "real GDP growth" country_focus: - "Canada" province_region: - "Multi-province" research_theme: - "Fiscal Policy" - "Productivity and Economic Measurement" - "Regional Economic Development" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/old-reports_hero_banner_bg.webp" status: "publish" --- # Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces, 2019-2038 Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/research/economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-2019-2038/ # Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces, 2019-2038 [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2022-01-1.pdf) Cite this report × Cite this report as: Arif, Abrar. 2022. “Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces, 2019-2038.” CSLS Research Report 2022-01. Ottawa: Centre for the Study of Living Standards. https://csls.ca/research/economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-2019-2038/ ## Author: - Abrar Arif Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) ## Report 2022-01 January 2022 65 pages ## Related research [Measuring the Appropriate Outcomes for Better Decision-Making: A Framework to Guide the Analysis of Health Policy Matthew Calver March 2016 | Report 2016-03 | 132 pages](https://csls.ca/research/measuring-the-appropriate-outcomes-for-better-decision-making-a-framework-to-guide-the-analysis-of-health-policy-2016-03/) [Living Standards Domain of the Canadian Index of Wellbeing Andrew Sharpe, Christopher Ross November 2011 | Report 2011-17 | 124 pages](https://csls.ca/research/living-standards-domain-of-the-canadian-index-of-wellbeing-2011-17/) [Productivity: Key to Economic Success Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) March 1998 | Report 1998-01 | 99 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-key-to-economic-success/) [Productivity Trends: A Canada-U.S. Comparison Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) January 1999 | Report 1999-01 | 6 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-trends-a-canada-u-s-comparison/) [New Estimates of Manufacturing Productivity Growth for Canada and the United States Andrew Sharpe March 1999 | Report 1999-02 | 21 pages](https://csls.ca/research/new-estimates-of-manufacturing-productivity-growth-for-canada-and-the-united-states/) [Apprenticeship in Canada: A Training System Under Siege? Andrew Sharpe December 1999 | Report 1999-03 | 59 pages](https://csls.ca/research/apprenticeship-in-canadaa-training-system-under-siege/) [A Survey of Indicators of Economic and Social Well-being Andrew Sharpe July 1999 | Report 1999-cprn | 72 pages](https://csls.ca/research/a-survey-of-indicators-of-economic-and-social-well-being/) [Creating a More Efficient Labour Market Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) June 2001 | Report 2001-02 | 147 pages](https://csls.ca/research/creating-a-more-efficient-labour-market/) [Productivity Trends in the Construction Sector: A Case of Lagging Technical Progress Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) November 2001 | Report 2001-03 | 177 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-trends-in-the-construction-sector-a-case-of-lagging-technical-progress/) [The Impact of the National Child Benefit Supplement on the Low Income Status of Canadian Families with Children: The SPSD/M Results Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) June 2002 | Report 2002-01 | 59 pages](https://csls.ca/research/the-impact-of-the-national-child-benefit-supplement-on-the-low-income-status-of-canadian-families-with-children-the-spsd-m-results/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn This report is an update of an earlier report by the CSLS in 2018, projecting real GDP growth for Canada and the provinces for the 2017-2038 period (Sharpe and Iglesias, 2018). The projections of this report are based on two additional years of historical data: 2018 and 2019. Two perspectives are explored in the report. First, the historical perspective, comparing current projections to the 2000-2019 period. Economic growth is projected to be slower over the next 20 years, down from 1.98 per cent per year over 2000-2019 to 1.71 per cent per year for the 2019-2038 period. Second, the earlier projections perspective, comparing current projections for the 2019-2038 period and the previous projections of the 2018 report for the 2017-2038 period. This report projects a growth rate of 1.71 per cent per year for 2019-2038, an increase of 0.15 percentage points over the earlier projection of 1.56 per cent for 2017-2038. An update in Statistics Canada’s population projections assumptions, mainly due to higher immigration assumptions, was the driving factor for the differences between the two projections. Ce rapport constitue une mise à jour d’un rapport antérieur du CSLS publié en 2018, qui projetait la croissance du PIB réel pour le Canada et les provinces pour la période 2017-2038 (Sharpe et Iglesias, 2018). Les projections du présent rapport reposent sur deux années supplémentaires de données historiques : 2018 et 2019. Le rapport explore deux perspectives. Premièrement, la perspective historique, qui compare les projections actuelles à la période 2000-2019. La croissance économique devrait ralentir au cours des 20 prochaines années, passant de 1,98 % par année entre 2000 et 2019 à 1,71 % par année pour la période 2019-2038. Deuxièmement, la perspective des projections antérieures, qui compare les projections actuelles pour la période 2019-2038 aux projections antérieures du rapport de 2018 pour la période 2017-2038. Ce rapport projette un taux de croissance de 1,71 % par année pour 2019-2038, soit une hausse de 0,15 point de pourcentage par rapport à la projection antérieure de 1,56 % pour 2017-2038. Une mise à jour des hypothèses de projections démographiques de Statistique Canada, principalement attribuable à des hypothèses d’immigration plus élevées, explique l’essentiel des différences entre les deux projections. [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2022-01-1.pdf)