--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/research/economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-2017-2038-an-update/" title: "Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces 2017-2038: An Update" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-02T11:34:12+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-02T11:34:12+00:00" post_type: "research" summary: "" post_tag: - "Canada" - "economic projections" - "labour productivity" - "labour supply" - "long-term forecasts" - "provinces" - "provincial projections" - "real GDP growth" country_focus: - "Canada" province_region: - "Multi-province" research_theme: - "Fiscal Policy" - "Productivity and Economic Measurement" - "Regional Economic Development" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/old-reports_hero_banner_bg.webp" status: "publish" --- # Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces 2017-2038: An Update Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/research/economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-2017-2038-an-update/ # Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces 2017-2038: An Update [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2018-05-1.pdf) Cite this report × Cite this report as: Sharpe, Andrew, and Cristina Blanco Iglesias. 2018. “Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces 2017-2038: An Update.” CSLS Research Report 2018-05. Ottawa: Centre for the Study of Living Standards. https://csls.ca/research/economic-projections-for-canada-and-the-provinces-2017-2038-an-update/ ## Authors: - Andrew Sharpe Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) - Cristina Blanco Iglesias Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) ## Report 2018-05 August 2018 36 pages ## Related research [Measuring the Appropriate Outcomes for Better Decision-Making: A Framework to Guide the Analysis of Health Policy Matthew Calver March 2016 | Report 2016-03 | 132 pages](https://csls.ca/research/measuring-the-appropriate-outcomes-for-better-decision-making-a-framework-to-guide-the-analysis-of-health-policy-2016-03/) [Living Standards Domain of the Canadian Index of Wellbeing Andrew Sharpe, Christopher Ross November 2011 | Report 2011-17 | 124 pages](https://csls.ca/research/living-standards-domain-of-the-canadian-index-of-wellbeing-2011-17/) [Productivity: Key to Economic Success Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) March 1998 | Report 1998-01 | 99 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-key-to-economic-success/) [Productivity Trends: A Canada-U.S. Comparison Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) January 1999 | Report 1999-01 | 6 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-trends-a-canada-u-s-comparison/) [New Estimates of Manufacturing Productivity Growth for Canada and the United States Andrew Sharpe March 1999 | Report 1999-02 | 21 pages](https://csls.ca/research/new-estimates-of-manufacturing-productivity-growth-for-canada-and-the-united-states/) [Apprenticeship in Canada: A Training System Under Siege? Andrew Sharpe December 1999 | Report 1999-03 | 59 pages](https://csls.ca/research/apprenticeship-in-canadaa-training-system-under-siege/) [A Survey of Indicators of Economic and Social Well-being Andrew Sharpe July 1999 | Report 1999-cprn | 72 pages](https://csls.ca/research/a-survey-of-indicators-of-economic-and-social-well-being/) [Creating a More Efficient Labour Market Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) June 2001 | Report 2001-02 | 147 pages](https://csls.ca/research/creating-a-more-efficient-labour-market/) [Productivity Trends in the Construction Sector: A Case of Lagging Technical Progress Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) November 2001 | Report 2001-03 | 177 pages](https://csls.ca/research/productivity-trends-in-the-construction-sector-a-case-of-lagging-technical-progress/) [The Impact of the National Child Benefit Supplement on the Low Income Status of Canadian Families with Children: The SPSD/M Results Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) June 2002 | Report 2002-01 | 59 pages](https://csls.ca/research/the-impact-of-the-national-child-benefit-supplement-on-the-low-income-status-of-canadian-families-with-children-the-spsd-m-results/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn This report updates CSLS economic projections for Canada and the provinces for the 2017-2038 period. Building on the 2015 CSLS study prepared for the Council of the Federation, the report incorporates new data from 2015, 2016, and 2017. Using a supply-side methodology, projections for real GDP growth are derived from trend labour productivity growth and potential labour supply growth. The report also compares the updated projections for Canada and Ontario with the 2015 projections, and benchmarks CSLS projections against those of other forecasters including Finance Canada and the Parliamentary Budget Office. Ce rapport met à jour les projections économiques du CSLS pour le Canada et les provinces pour la période 2017-2038. S’appuyant sur l’étude du CSLS de 2015 préparée pour le Conseil de la fédération, le rapport intègre de nouvelles données pour 2015, 2016 et 2017. À l’aide d’une méthodologie axée sur l’offre, les projections de croissance du PIB réel sont dérivées de la croissance tendancielle de la productivité du travail et de la croissance potentielle de l’offre de main-d’œuvre. Le rapport compare également les projections mises à jour pour le Canada et l’Ontario aux projections de 2015, et établit un parallèle entre les projections du CSLS et celles d’autres prévisionnistes, dont Finances Canada et le Bureau du directeur parlementaire du budget. [Download full PDF report](https://csls.ca/pdf/csls2018-05-1.pdf)