--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/issue-7/a-perspective-on-future-productivity-growth-in-canada/" title: "A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T05:43:06+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T06:41:29+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Fall 2003" ipm_keyword: - "Canada" - "capital deepening" - "demographics" - "FOCUS model" - "ICT" - "labour productivity" - "long-run growth" - "potential output" - "productivity projections" ipm_research_theme: - "Productivity trends and comparisons" ipm_country_focus: - "Canada" - "United States" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/issue-7/a-perspective-on-future-productivity-growth-in-canada/ # A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-7-5-Wilson.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Wilson, Thomas. 2003. “A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada.” International Productivity Monitor, No. 7 (Fall 2003): 46–49. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/issue-7/a-perspective-on-future-productivity-growth-in-canada/ ## Author: - Thomas Wilson Policy and Economic Analysis Program (PEAP), University of Toronto ## IPM Issue 7 Fall 2003 pp. 46–49 ## Related IPM articles [The Relationship between Efficiencies Defenses for Mergers and TFP Growth Robin Shaban Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 82–102](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-relationship-between-efficiencies-defenses-for-mergers-and-tfp-growth/) [Labour Productivity as a Measure of Technological Change Ulrich Kohli Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 64–81](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/labour-productivity-as-a-measure-of-technological-change/) [Appendix: Variable Definitions and Country/Sector Coverage for Regulatory Reform Analysis Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Océane Vernerey Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 1–18](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/appendix-variable-definitions-and-country-sector-coverage-for-regulatory-reform-analysis/) [The Potential Impact of Pro-competitive Regulatory Reforms on Productivity and Growth in Canada Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Océane Vernerey Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 3–40](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-potential-impact-of-pro-competitive-regulatory-reforms-on-productivity-and-growth-in-canada/) [IPM Issue 49 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark, Paul Schreyer Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/) [How Does Industrial Policy Impact Output, Hours and Productivity? 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Bart van Ark, Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban Spring 2024 | IPM Issue 46 | pp. 38–59](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/are-intangibles-running-out-of-steam/) [Cracking the Productivity Code: An International Comparison of UK Productivity John Van Reenen, Xuyi Yang Spring 2024 | IPM Issue 46 | pp. 60–82](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/cracking-the-productivity-code-an-international-comparison-of-uk-productivity/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn This article presents long-term projections of productivity growth in Canada using the FOCUS macroeconometric model. The base case projects total economy labour productivity growth averaging 1.9 per cent per year over 2003-2008 and 1.7 per cent thereafter, as the economy converges to potential output by 2008. The article identifies slowing labour force growth from demographic change as the primary constraint on potential output growth, partially offset by increased capital deepening. The author views this projection as conservative, noting upside potential from continued ICT spillovers, a stable policy environment, and Canada’s significant productivity gap with the United States. Cet article présente des projections à long terme de la croissance de la productivité au Canada à l’aide du modèle macroéconométrique FOCUS. Le scénario de base projette une croissance de la productivité du travail dans l’économie totale de 1,9 % par année en moyenne sur la période 2003-2008 et de 1,7 % par la suite, à mesure que l’économie converge vers sa production potentielle d’ici 2008. L’article identifie le ralentissement de la croissance de la population active imputable aux changements démographiques comme la principale contrainte sur la croissance de la production potentielle, partiellement compensée par un approfondissement du capital accru. L’auteur juge cette projection prudente, soulignant un potentiel à la hausse découlant des retombées continues des TIC, d’un environnement de politiques stable et du retard de productivité important du Canada par rapport aux États-Unis. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-7-5-Wilson.pdf)