--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/de-industrialization-and-the-great-productivity-slowdown-what-comes-next/" title: "De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next?" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T08:15:29+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-17T10:08:15+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Spring 2025" ipm_keyword: - "Baumol" - "de-industrialization" - "Fisher" - "GDP measurement" - "manufacturing" - "net zero" - "NIESR" - "productivity slowdown" - "services" - "UK" - "United States" ipm_research_theme: - "Productivity trends and comparisons" ipm_country_focus: - "International" - "United Kingdom" - "United States" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next? Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/de-industrialization-and-the-great-productivity-slowdown-what-comes-next/ # De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next? [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-48-6-Fisher.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Fisher, Paul. 2025. “De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next?” International Productivity Monitor, No. 48 (Spring 2025): 115–138. https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/de-industrialization-and-the-great-productivity-slowdown-what-comes-next/ ## Author: - Paul Fisher National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ## IPM Issue 48 Spring 2025 pp. 115–138 ## Related IPM articles [ONS Response to ‘Are UK Regional Productivity Disparities Really Narrowing?’ Richard Prothero Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 85–89](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/ons-response-to-are-uk-regional-productivity-disparities-really-narrowing/) [New Measures of Public Service Productivity: Lessons and Results from the United Kingdom Richard Heys Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 90–114](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/new-measures-of-public-service-productivity-lessons-and-results-from-the-united-kingdom/) [Are UK Regional Productivity Disparities Really Narrowing? An Investigation into Recent Productivity Data Revisions Fokke Reitze Gouma, Philip McCann, Raquel Ortega-Argilés Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 63–84](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/are-uk-regional-productivity-disparities-really-narrowing-an-investigation-into-recent-productivity-data-revisions/) [Online Supplementary Material: UK Regional Productivity Data Fokke Reitze Gouma, Philip McCann, Raquel Ortega-Argilés Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 15–19](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/online-supplementary-material-uk-regional-productivity-data/) [The UK Productivity Slowdown: A Review of Timing, Magnitude, and Drivers Josh Martin Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 1–34](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/the-uk-productivity-slowdown-a-review-of-timing-magnitude-and-drivers/) [Appendix: UK Productivity Growth Rates Across Data Vintages and Studies Josh Martin Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 65–73](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/appendix-uk-productivity-growth-rates-across-data-vintages-and-studies/) [IPM Issue 48 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark, Paul Schreyer Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/) [Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence for Productivity Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief, Filiz Unsal Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 1–26](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/opportunities-and-risks-of-artificial-intelligence-for-productivity/) [Climate Change and Productivity — An Exploration Dirk Pilat Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 54–86](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/climate-change-and-productivity-an-exploration/) [Could Domestic Industrial Policies, Even With Global Fragmentation, Revive Productivity? Catherine Mann Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 3–19](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/could-domestic-industrial-policies-even-with-global-fragmentation-revive-productivity/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn Productivity growth in advanced economies has been slowing internationally for many years. Despite much academic research, there is no consensus on why. Many researchers assume a break in productivity growth around 2007-09. This article argues that there was no such break. Rather, the slowdown is a much longer-term phenomenon and is largely an inevitable consequence of de-industrialization. Unfortunately data measurement – especially of productivity – remains biased towards a now small manufacturing sector, rather than the dominant services and digital sectors. Whatever policies are pursued, manufacturing will continue to shrink as a share of value-added and the measured productivity growth trend will continue to slow. Policy needs to look forwards, not backwards. That means a focus on welfare improvements, not GDP growth and investment in the new technologies and growing sectors, not a doomed fight to restore the manufacturing glories of the past. Investment policies should support critical digital networks, especially to support services such as health and education which are key to productivity in the services sector. Investment is also needed in the transition to net zero to address the climate crisis. These developments would be growth positive and may stem the measured productivity slowdown for a time. La croissance de la productivité dans les économies avancées ralentit depuis de nombreuses années à l’échelle internationale. Malgré de nombreuses recherches académiques, il n’y a pas de consensus sur les raisons. De nombreux chercheurs supposent une rupture dans la croissance de la productivité autour de 2007-2009. Cet article soutient qu’il n’y a pas eu de telle rupture. Le ralentissement est plutôt un phénomène à beaucoup plus long terme et est largement une conséquence inévitable de la désindustrialisation. Malheureusement, la mesure des données — notamment de la productivité — reste biaisée vers un secteur manufacturier désormais de petite taille, plutôt que vers les secteurs dominants des services et du numérique. Quelle que soit la politique poursuivie, le secteur manufacturier continuera de se contracter comme part de la valeur ajoutée et la tendance mesurée de la croissance de la productivité continuera de ralentir. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-48-6-Fisher.pdf)