--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/accounting-for-the-decline-of-canadas-real-gdp-per-capita-since-mid-2022/" title: "Accounting for the Decline of Canada’s Real GDP Per Capita since Mid-2022" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T08:15:22+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-17T09:48:27+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Spring 2024" ipm_keyword: - "2022-2024" - "Canada" - "decomposition" - "GDP per capita" - "immigration" - "labour productivity" - "non-permanent residents" - "Smith" - "Statistics Canada" ipm_research_theme: - "Productivity trends and comparisons" - "Well-being and living standards" ipm_country_focus: - "Canada" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # Accounting for the Decline of Canada’s Real GDP Per Capita since Mid-2022 Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/accounting-for-the-decline-of-canadas-real-gdp-per-capita-since-mid-2022/ # Accounting for the Decline of Canada’s Real GDP Per Capita since Mid-2022 [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-46-4-Smith.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Smith, Philip. 2024. “Accounting for the Decline of Canada’s Real GDP Per Capita since Mid-2022.” International Productivity Monitor, No. 46 (Spring 2024): 83–100. https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/accounting-for-the-decline-of-canadas-real-gdp-per-capita-since-mid-2022/ ## Author: - Philip Smith Statistics Canada ## IPM Issue 46 Spring 2024 pp. 83–100 ## Related IPM articles [Labour Productivity as a Measure of Technological Change Ulrich Kohli Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 64–81](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/labour-productivity-as-a-measure-of-technological-change/) [The Relationship between Efficiencies Defenses for Mergers and TFP Growth Robin Shaban Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 82–102](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-relationship-between-efficiencies-defenses-for-mergers-and-tfp-growth/) [Appendix: Variable Definitions and Country/Sector Coverage for Regulatory Reform Analysis Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Océane Vernerey Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 1–18](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/appendix-variable-definitions-and-country-sector-coverage-for-regulatory-reform-analysis/) [The Potential Impact of Pro-competitive Regulatory Reforms on Productivity and Growth in Canada Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Océane Vernerey Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 3–40](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-potential-impact-of-pro-competitive-regulatory-reforms-on-productivity-and-growth-in-canada/) [IPM Issue 49 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark, Paul Schreyer Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/) [How Does Industrial Policy Impact Output, Hours and Productivity? The Canadian Experience Tim Sargent Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 39–53](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/how-does-industrial-policy-impact-output-hours-and-productivity-the-canadian-experience/) [IPM Issue 47 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/) [Cracking the Productivity Code: An International Comparison of UK Productivity John Van Reenen, Xuyi Yang Spring 2024 | IPM Issue 46 | pp. 60–82](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/cracking-the-productivity-code-an-international-comparison-of-uk-productivity/) [IPM Issue 46 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark Spring 2024 | IPM Issue 46 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/) [Capacity Utilization and Production Function Estimation: Implications for Productivity Analysis Jianmin Tang, Weimin Wang Fall 2023 | IPM Issue 45 | pp. 178–199](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-45/capacity-utilization-and-production-function-estimation-implications-for-productivity-analysis/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn Real GDP per capita has been falling in Canada since mid-2022, while the number of non-permanent residents has been rising sharply. This article discusses how these two developments are linked. The paper identifies six factors currently influencing real GDP per capita: (1) labour productivity; (2) average hours worked per job; (3) the employment rate of the working-age population; (4) the ratio of the working-age population to the permanent resident population (where working-age includes NPRs in that age class); (5) the share of permanent residents in the total population; and (6) the relative rate of growth of the government and non-profit sectors compared to that of the business sector. The relative importance of each of these factors is assessed via a multiplicative decomposition and the analysis indicates the share of permanent residents in the total population is currently the single most important factor. Le PIB réel par habitant diminue au Canada depuis le milieu de 2022, tandis que le nombre de résidents non permanents a fortement augmenté. Cet article examine comment ces deux développements sont liés. Il identifie six facteurs influençant actuellement le PIB réel par habitant : (1) la productivité du travail; (2) les heures moyennes travaillées par emploi; (3) le taux d’emploi de la population en âge de travailler; (4) le ratio de la population en âge de travailler à la population de résidents permanents; (5) la part des résidents permanents dans la population totale; et (6) le taux de croissance relatif des secteurs gouvernemental et sans but lucratif par rapport au secteur des entreprises. L’importance relative de chacun de ces facteurs est évaluée par une décomposition multiplicative. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-46-4-Smith.pdf)