--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-41/chaos-before-order-productivity-patterns-in-u-s-manufacturing/" title: "Chaos Before Order: Productivity Patterns in U.S. Manufacturing" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T08:01:56+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T08:01:56+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Fall 2021" ipm_keyword: - "6th World KLEMS Conference" - "BLS" - "Census Bureau" - "DiSP" - "entry rates" - "Haltiwanger" - "high-tech" - "innovation" - "productivity dispersion" - "shakeout" - "U.S. manufacturing" ipm_research_theme: - "Sectoral and firm-level dynamics" ipm_country_focus: - "United States" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # Chaos Before Order: Productivity Patterns in U.S. Manufacturing Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-41/chaos-before-order-productivity-patterns-in-u-s-manufacturing/ # Chaos Before Order: Productivity Patterns in U.S. Manufacturing [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-41-6-Cunningham-Pabilonia-Stewart-Foster-Grim-Haltiwanger-Wolf.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Cunningham, Cindy, Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia, Jay Stewart, Lucia Foster, Cheryl Grim, John Haltiwanger, and Zoltan Wolf. 2021. “Chaos Before Order: Productivity Patterns in U.S. Manufacturing.” International Productivity Monitor, No. 41 (Fall 2021): 138–152. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-41/chaos-before-order-productivity-patterns-in-u-s-manufacturing/ ## Authors: - Cindy Cunningham U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Maryland; New Light Technologies - Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Maryland; New Light Technologies - Jay Stewart U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Maryland; New Light Technologies - Lucia Foster U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Maryland; New Light Technologies - Cheryl Grim U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Maryland; New Light Technologies - John Haltiwanger U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Maryland; New Light Technologies - Zoltan Wolf U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Maryland; New Light Technologies ## IPM Issue 41 Fall 2021 pp. 138–152 ## Related IPM articles [Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence for Productivity Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief, Filiz Unsal Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 1–26](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/opportunities-and-risks-of-artificial-intelligence-for-productivity/) [Canada’s Patent Productivity Paradox: Recent Trends and Implications for Future Productivity Growth Iain Cockburn, Megan MacGarvie, John McKeon Fall 2023 | IPM Issue 45 | pp. 120–154](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-45/canadas-patent-productivity-paradox-recent-trends-and-implications-for-future-productivity-growth/) [Lessons from a Career in Productivity Research: Some Answers, A Glimpse of the Future, and Much Left to Learn Martin Baily Spring 2023 | IPM Issue 44 | pp. 120–149](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-44/lessons-from-a-career-in-productivity-research-some-answers-a-glimpse-of-the-future-and-much-left-to-learn/) [Why Was US Labour Productivity Growth So High During the COVID-19 Pandemic? The Role of Labour Composition Jay Stewart Spring 2022 | IPM Issue 42 | pp. 87–103](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-42/why-was-us-labour-productivity-growth-so-high-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-the-role-of-labour-composition/) [Putting Together the Pieces of the Productivity Puzzle: Review Article of Productivity Perspectives and Productivity and the Pandemic Bart van Ark Spring 2021 | IPM Issue 40 | pp. 118–133](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-40/putting-together-the-pieces-of-the-productivity-puzzle-review-article-of-productivity-perspectives-and-productivity-and-the-pandemic/) [Frontier Firms and Productivity Dispersion in Canada Wulong Gu Fall 2019 | IPM Issue 37 | pp. 96–119](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-37/frontier-firms-and-productivity-dispersion-in-canada/) [Online Appendix: Data Construction for New BEA-BLS Estimates Corby Garner, Justin Harper, Thomas Howells III, Matt Russell, Jon Samuels Spring 2019 | IPM Issue 36 | pp. 1–11](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-36/online-appendix-data-construction-for-new-bea-bls-estimates/) [New BEA-BLS Estimates of the Industry-level Sources of U.S. Economic Growth between 1987 and 2016 Corby Garner, Justin Harper, Thomas Howells III, Matt Russell, Jon Samuels Spring 2019 | IPM Issue 36 | pp. 187–203](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-36/new-bea-bls-estimates-of-the-industry-level-sources-of-u-s-economic-growth-between-1987-and-2016/) [Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States: Recent Industry Trends and Potential Explanations Wulong Gu, Michael Willox Fall 2018 | IPM Issue 35 | pp. 73–94](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-35/productivity-growth-in-canada-and-the-united-states-recent-industry-trends-and-potential-explanations/) [Appendix: Industry Sources of Labour Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States Wulong Gu, Michael Willox Fall 2018 | IPM Issue 35 | pp. 1–10](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-35/appendix-industry-sources-of-labour-productivity-growth-in-canada-and-the-united-states/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn Within-industry productivity dispersion is pervasive and exhibits substantial variation across countries, industries, and time. We build on prior research that explores the hypothesis that periods of innovation are initially associated with a surge in business start-ups, followed by increased experimentation that leads to rising dispersion potentially with declining aggregate productivity growth, and then a shakeout process that results in higher productivity growth and declining productivity dispersion. Using novel detailed industrylevel data on total factor productivity and labour productivity dispersion from the Dispersion Statistics on Productivity dataset along with novel measures of entry rates from the Business Dynamics Statistics and productivity growth data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for U.S. manufacturing industries, we find support for this hypothesis, especially for the high-tech industries. An increase in entry rates in a two-year period t is associated with an increase in dispersion and decrease in aggregate productivity growth in two-year La dispersion de la productivité intra-industrielle est omniprésente et présente une variation substantielle entre les pays, les industries et le temps. Nous nous appuyons sur des recherches antérieures explorant l’hypothèse selon laquelle les périodes d’innovation sont initialement associées à une poussée des créations d’entreprises, suivie d’une expérimentation accrue menant à une hausse de la dispersion avec une possible baisse de la croissance de la productivité globale, puis à un processus de consolidation qui se traduit par une croissance de la productivité plus élevée et une dispersion de la productivité en baisse. À l’aide de données détaillées au niveau industriel sur la dispersion de la PMF totale et de la productivité du travail, ainsi que de mesures inédites des taux d’entrée, nous documentons ces schémas pour le secteur manufacturier américain. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-41-6-Cunningham-Pabilonia-Stewart-Foster-Grim-Haltiwanger-Wolf.pdf)