--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-36/the-uk-and-western-productivity-puzzle-does-arthur-lewis-hold-the-key/" title: "The UK and Western Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T07:52:49+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T07:52:49+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Spring 2019" ipm_keyword: - "23 countries" - "52 countries" - "Arthur Lewis" - "export demand" - "labour productivity" - "LSE" - "neo-Lewis" - "NIESR" - "Solow model" - "TFP" - "UK productivity puzzle" ipm_research_theme: - "Productivity trends and comparisons" ipm_country_focus: - "Europe" - "International" - "United Kingdom" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # The UK and Western Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key? Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-36/the-uk-and-western-productivity-puzzle-does-arthur-lewis-hold-the-key/ # The UK and Western Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key? [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-36-6-Oulton.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Oulton, Nicholas. 2019. “The UK and Western Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?” International Productivity Monitor, No. 36 (Spring 2019): 110–141. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-36/the-uk-and-western-productivity-puzzle-does-arthur-lewis-hold-the-key/ ## Author: - Nicholas Oulton London School of Economics; National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ## IPM Issue 36 Spring 2019 pp. 110–141 ## Related IPM articles [Efficiency Adjustment of Hours Worked: Two Possible Modifications of a Jorgensen Production Model Barbara Fraumeni Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 103–115](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/efficiency-adjustment-of-hours-worked-two-possible-modifications-of-a-jorgensen-production-model/) [The Relationship between Efficiencies Defenses for Mergers and TFP Growth Robin Shaban Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 82–102](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-relationship-between-efficiencies-defenses-for-mergers-and-tfp-growth/) [Labour Productivity as a Measure of Technological Change Ulrich Kohli Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 64–81](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/labour-productivity-as-a-measure-of-technological-change/) [IPM Issue 49 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark, Paul Schreyer Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/) [De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next? 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In the neo-Lewis model, when foreign demand for exports is constrained below potential supply (as post-2007), labour input growth continues (due to flexible labour markets) but GDP growth slows, necessarily reducing labour productivity growth. The predictions are tested on 23 countries (20 EU plus 3 non-EU) and find support. The model also explains the fall in TFP growth after 2007 in a sample of 52 countries. Cet article propose une nouvelle explication néo-lewisienne pour l’énigme de productivité du Royaume-Uni et des pays développés : greffer le modèle d’économie duale de Lewis (1954) sur un cadre de croissance de Solow. Dans le modèle néo-lewisien, lorsque la demande extérieure pour les exportations est contrainte en deçà de l’offre potentielle (comme après 2007), la croissance des intrants de main-d’œuvre se poursuit (en raison de marchés du travail flexibles) mais la croissance du PIB ralentit, réduisant nécessairement la croissance de la productivité du travail. Les prédictions sont testées sur 23 pays (20 de l’UE et 3 hors UE) et trouvent un soutien. Le modèle explique également la chute de la croissance de la PMF après 2007 dans un échantillon de 52 pays. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-36-6-Oulton.pdf)