--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-35/is-slow-productivity-and-output-growth-in-advanced-economies-the-new-normal/" title: "Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal?" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T07:52:45+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T07:52:45+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Fall 2018" ipm_keyword: - "advanced economies" - "AI" - "demographics" - "Fernald" - "INSEAD" - "OECD" - "potential growth" - "productivity" - "secular stagnation" - "TFP" ipm_research_theme: - "Productivity trends and comparisons" ipm_country_focus: - "Europe" - "International" - "Japan" - "OECD" - "United States" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal? Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-35/is-slow-productivity-and-output-growth-in-advanced-economies-the-new-normal/ # Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal? [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-35-7-Fernald.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Fernald, John. 2018. “Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal?” International Productivity Monitor, No. 35 (Fall 2018): 138–148. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-35/is-slow-productivity-and-output-growth-in-advanced-economies-the-new-normal/ ## Author: - John Fernald INSEAD; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ## IPM Issue 35 Fall 2018 pp. 138–148 ## Related IPM articles [Is the SNA Still Useful? 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Demographics look much less favorable to output growth than in the past, and productivity growth has been only modest. The demographic and productivity factors driving this slowdown in potential growth look to be largely independent of the Great Recession. These factors do not at this point look likely to change rapidly, despite considerable uncertainty about the future contribution of artificial intelligence and robots. Les économies avancées ont connu un ralentissement notable de la croissance potentielle au cours de la dernière décennie environ. Les données démographiques sont beaucoup moins favorables à la croissance de la production que par le passé, et la croissance de la productivité n’a été que modeste. Les facteurs démographiques et de productivité qui sous-tendent ce ralentissement de la croissance potentielle semblent être largement indépendants de la Grande Récession. Ces facteurs ne semblent pas à ce stade susceptibles de changer rapidement, malgré une incertitude considérable quant à la contribution future de l’intelligence artificielle et des robots. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-35-7-Fernald.pdf)