--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-35/canadian-productivity-growth-secular-stagnation-and-technological-change/" title: "Canadian Productivity Growth, Secular Stagnation, and Technological Change" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T07:52:44+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T07:52:44+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Fall 2018" ipm_keyword: - "AI" - "book indicators" - "Canada" - "goods sector" - "MFP" - "productivity" - "robotics" - "secular stagnation" - "services" - "technology" ipm_research_theme: - "Technology and innovation" ipm_country_focus: - "Canada" - "United States" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # Canadian Productivity Growth, Secular Stagnation, and Technological Change Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-35/canadian-productivity-growth-secular-stagnation-and-technological-change/ # Canadian Productivity Growth, Secular Stagnation, and Technological Change [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-35-6-Alexopoulos-Cohen.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Alexopoulos, Michelle, and Jon Cohen. 2018. “Canadian Productivity Growth, Secular Stagnation, and Technological Change.” International Productivity Monitor, No. 35 (Fall 2018): 113–137. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-35/canadian-productivity-growth-secular-stagnation-and-technological-change/ ## Authors: - Michelle Alexopoulos Department of Economics, University of Toronto - Jon Cohen Department of Economics, University of Toronto ## IPM Issue 35 Fall 2018 pp. 113–137 ## Related IPM articles [The Relationship between Efficiencies Defenses for Mergers and TFP Growth Robin Shaban Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 82–102](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-relationship-between-efficiencies-defenses-for-mergers-and-tfp-growth/) [Appendix: Variable Definitions and Country/Sector Coverage for Regulatory Reform Analysis Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Océane Vernerey Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 1–18](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/appendix-variable-definitions-and-country-sector-coverage-for-regulatory-reform-analysis/) [Adult Skills and Productivity: New Evidence from PIAAC 2023 Dan Andrews, Balázs Égert, Christine de La Maisonneuve Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 41–63](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/adult-skills-and-productivity-new-evidence-from-piaac-2023/) [The Potential Impact of Pro-competitive Regulatory Reforms on Productivity and Growth in Canada Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Océane Vernerey Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 3–40](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-potential-impact-of-pro-competitive-regulatory-reforms-on-productivity-and-growth-in-canada/) [IPM Issue 49 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark, Paul Schreyer Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/) [De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next? Paul Fisher Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 115–138](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/de-industrialization-and-the-great-productivity-slowdown-what-comes-next/) [Appendix: UK Productivity Growth Rates Across Data Vintages and Studies Josh Martin Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 65–73](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/appendix-uk-productivity-growth-rates-across-data-vintages-and-studies/) [IPM Issue 48 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark, Paul Schreyer Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/) [Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence for Productivity Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief, Filiz Unsal Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 1–26](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/opportunities-and-risks-of-artificial-intelligence-for-productivity/) [Using Ecosystem Accounting to Integrate the Environment in Measures of Multifactor Productivity Carl Obst Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 87–108](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/using-ecosystem-accounting-to-integrate-the-environment-in-measures-of-multifactor-productivity/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn In this article, we show first that the recent slowdown in productivity growth in Canada, similar to that in the United States, can be attributed at least in part to the fall-off in the commercialization of new technologies. Using our bookbased indicators of technological change, we are able to show that this is true for both aggregate measures of technology and, at the disaggregate level, for mechanical/manufacturing and electrical technologies. Our results also indicate that the productivity impact of the slowdown in Canada is much greater on goods-producing industries than it is on services. Second, our latest results suggest that, contrary to the concerns of some that we are entering a new period of secular stagnation characterized by low productivity and economic growth, we are actually on the threshold of significant new technological breakthroughs, associated largely, but not only, with advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. Provided that Canadian firms adopt these innovations, we can anticipate not a continuation of slow productivity growth but an acceleration. Dans cet article, nous montrons d’abord que le récent ralentissement de la croissance de la productivité au Canada, similaire à celui des États-Unis, peut être attribué au moins en partie au recul de la commercialisation de nouvelles technologies. À l’aide de nos indicateurs de changement technologique fondés sur les livres, nous sommes en mesure de montrer que cela est vrai tant pour les mesures agrégées de la technologie que, au niveau désagrégé, pour les technologies mécaniques/manufacturières et électriques. Nos résultats indiquent également que l’impact sur la productivité du ralentissement au Canada est beaucoup plus important sur les industries productrices de biens que sur les services. Nos derniers résultats suggèrent que, contrairement aux préoccupations de certains selon lesquelles nous entrons dans une nouvelle période de stagnation séculaire, nous sommes en réalité au seuil de nouvelles percées technologiques importantes. 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