--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-34/what-explains-the-post-2004-u-s-productivity-slowdown/" title: "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S. Productivity Slowdown?" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T07:52:37+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T07:52:37+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Spring 2018" ipm_keyword: - "capital deepening" - "growth accounting" - "ICT" - "manufacturing" - "post-2004" - "productivity slowdown" - "retail trade" - "TFP" - "United States" - "wholesale trade" ipm_research_theme: - "Productivity trends and comparisons" ipm_country_focus: - "United States" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # What Explains the Post-2004 U.S. Productivity Slowdown? Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-34/what-explains-the-post-2004-u-s-productivity-slowdown/ # What Explains the Post-2004 U.S. Productivity Slowdown? [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-34-5-Murray.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Murray, Alexander. 2018. “What Explains the Post-2004 U.S. Productivity Slowdown?” International Productivity Monitor, No. 34 (Spring 2018): 81–109. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-34/what-explains-the-post-2004-u-s-productivity-slowdown/ ## Author: - Alexander Murray Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) ## IPM Issue 34 Spring 2018 pp. 81–109 ## Related IPM articles [Efficiency Adjustment of Hours Worked: Two Possible Modifications of a Jorgensen Production Model Barbara Fraumeni Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 103–115](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/efficiency-adjustment-of-hours-worked-two-possible-modifications-of-a-jorgensen-production-model/) [Labour Productivity as a Measure of Technological Change Ulrich Kohli Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 64–81](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/labour-productivity-as-a-measure-of-technological-change/) [The Relationship between Efficiencies Defenses for Mergers and TFP Growth Robin Shaban Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 82–102](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-relationship-between-efficiencies-defenses-for-mergers-and-tfp-growth/) [IPM Issue 49 Editors’ Overview Andrew Sharpe, Bart van Ark, Paul Schreyer Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 1–2](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/) [De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next? 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Bart van Ark, Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban Spring 2024 | IPM Issue 46 | pp. 38–59](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/are-intangibles-running-out-of-steam/) [Cracking the Productivity Code: An International Comparison of UK Productivity John Van Reenen, Xuyi Yang Spring 2024 | IPM Issue 46 | pp. 60–82](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-46/cracking-the-productivity-code-an-international-comparison-of-uk-productivity/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn Economic theory and history show that labour productivity growth is the main driver of rising living standards, so changes in the trend rate of productivity growth have profound implications for a society’s future prosperity. The average annual rate of business sector labour productivity growth in the United States declined by 1.9 percentage points between the 1995-2004 period and the 2004-2015 period, from 3.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent. This article summarizes the state of knowledge on the causes of the post-2004 slowdown in U.S. productivity growth. Official growth accounting estimates indicate that 60-65 per cent of the labour productivity decline is accounted for by a decline in total factor productivity growth, while 30-35 per cent is accounted for by a decline in the rate of capital deepening. Three industries account for over 80 per cent of the aggregate labour productivity decline: manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade. The aggregate productivity slowdown is traceable to a decline in the productivity contributions arising from industries that produce or intensively use information and communication technology (ICT) products. Business La théorie et l’histoire économiques montrent que la croissance de la productivité du travail est le principal moteur de la hausse du niveau de vie, de sorte que les variations du taux tendanciel de croissance de la productivité ont de profondes implications pour la prospérité future d’une société. Le taux de croissance annuel moyen de la productivité du travail dans le secteur des entreprises aux États-Unis a diminué de 1,9 point de pourcentage entre la période 1995-2004 et la période 2004-2015, passant de 3,2 % à 1,3 %. Cet article résume l’état des connaissances sur les causes du ralentissement de la croissance de la productivité américaine après 2004. Les estimations officielles de comptabilité de la croissance indiquent que 60 à 65 % du recul de la productivité du travail est attribuable à un recul de la croissance de la productivité multifactorielle, tandis que 30 à 35 % est attribuable à un ralentissement du rythme d’approfondissement du capital. 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