--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-29/the-role-of-productivity-in-long-term-economic-and-fiscal-projections-for-the-canadian-provinces-and-territories-2014-2038/" title: "The Role of Productivity in Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections for the Canadian Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T07:40:45+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T07:40:45+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Fall 2015" ipm_keyword: - "ageing" - "Canada" - "fiscal projections" - "fiscal sustainability" - "GDP" - "health spending" - "labour supply" - "productivity" - "provinces" - "territories" ipm_research_theme: - "Policy and institutions" ipm_country_focus: - "Canada" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # The Role of Productivity in Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections for the Canadian Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038 Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-29/the-role-of-productivity-in-long-term-economic-and-fiscal-projections-for-the-canadian-provinces-and-territories-2014-2038/ # The Role of Productivity in Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections for the Canadian Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038 [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-29-1-Drummong-Capeluck.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Drummond, Don, and Evan Capeluck. 2015. “The Role of Productivity in Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections for the Canadian Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038.” International Productivity Monitor, No. 29 (Fall 2015): 3–17. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-29/the-role-of-productivity-in-long-term-economic-and-fiscal-projections-for-the-canadian-provinces-and-territories-2014-2038/ ## Authors: - Don Drummond Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) - Evan Capeluck Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University ## IPM Issue 29 Fall 2015 pp. 3–17 ## Related IPM articles [Is the SNA Still Useful? 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We find that under our realistic assumptions, most provinces and territories will not be able to meet the test of balancing revenue growth with growth in public spending without either raising taxes or cutting program spending. Given the relative distaste for higher taxes and spending cuts, provincial/territorial governments in Canada must find ways to boost productivity and labour supply growth, and hence revenue growth, to maintain fiscal balance to 2038. A N AGEING POPULATION , RISING health care Cet article présente des projections à long terme de la croissance de la productivité du travail et de l’offre de main-d’œuvre pour les provinces et les territoires sur la période 2014-2038, et examine leurs implications pour l’équilibre budgétaire au niveau provincial et territorial. Nous constatons que selon nos hypothèses réalistes, la plupart des provinces et territoires ne seront pas en mesure de satisfaire au critère d’équilibre entre la croissance des revenus et la croissance des dépenses publiques sans augmenter les impôts ou réduire les dépenses de programme. Compte tenu de l’aversion relative pour la hausse des impôts et les réductions des dépenses, les gouvernements provinciaux et territoriaux du Canada doivent trouver des moyens d’accélérer la productivité et la croissance de l’offre de main-d’œuvre, et donc la croissance des revenus, pour maintenir l’équilibre budgétaire jusqu’en 2038. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-29-1-Drummong-Capeluck.pdf)