--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-25/will-history-repeat-itself-comments-on-is-the-information-technology-revolution-over/" title: "Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on ‘Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?’" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T07:37:46+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T07:37:46+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Spring 2013" ipm_keyword: - "electrification" - "general purpose technology" - "historical analogy" - "IT revolution" - "mean income" - "median income" - "productivity" - "semiconductors" - "United States" ipm_research_theme: - "Technology and innovation" ipm_country_focus: - "United States" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on ‘Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?’ Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-25/will-history-repeat-itself-comments-on-is-the-information-technology-revolution-over/ # Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on ‘Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?’ [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-25-4-Syverson.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Syverson, Chad. 2013. “Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on ‘Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?’.” International Productivity Monitor, No. 25 (Spring 2013): 37–40. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-25/will-history-repeat-itself-comments-on-is-the-information-technology-revolution-over/ ## Author: - Chad Syverson Booth School of Business, University of Chicago ## IPM Issue 25 Spring 2013 pp. 37–40 ## Related IPM articles [The Relationship between Efficiencies Defenses for Mergers and TFP Growth Robin Shaban Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 82–102](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-relationship-between-efficiencies-defenses-for-mergers-and-tfp-growth/) [Adult Skills and Productivity: New Evidence from PIAAC 2023 Dan Andrews, Balázs Égert, Christine de La Maisonneuve Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 41–63](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/adult-skills-and-productivity-new-evidence-from-piaac-2023/) [The Potential Impact of Pro-competitive Regulatory Reforms on Productivity and Growth in Canada Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Océane Vernerey Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 3–40](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-potential-impact-of-pro-competitive-regulatory-reforms-on-productivity-and-growth-in-canada/) [De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next? Paul Fisher Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 115–138](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/de-industrialization-and-the-great-productivity-slowdown-what-comes-next/) [Appendix: UK Productivity Growth Rates Across Data Vintages and Studies Josh Martin Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 65–73](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/appendix-uk-productivity-growth-rates-across-data-vintages-and-studies/) [Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence for Productivity Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief, Filiz Unsal Spring 2025 | IPM Issue 48 | pp. 1–26](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-48/opportunities-and-risks-of-artificial-intelligence-for-productivity/) [Using Ecosystem Accounting to Integrate the Environment in Measures of Multifactor Productivity Carl Obst Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 87–108](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/using-ecosystem-accounting-to-integrate-the-environment-in-measures-of-multifactor-productivity/) [Eroding Natural Capital: An Alternative Explanation for the Secular Decline in Productivity Growth Christina Caron Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 109–147](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/eroding-natural-capital-an-alternative-explanation-for-the-secular-decline-in-productivity-growth/) [How Does Industrial Policy Impact Output, Hours and Productivity? The Canadian Experience Tim Sargent Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 39–53](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/how-does-industrial-policy-impact-output-hours-and-productivity-the-canadian-experience/) [Climate Change and Productivity — An Exploration Dirk Pilat Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 54–86](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/climate-change-and-productivity-an-exploration/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn In this article I comment on three aspects of Byrne, Oliner and Sichel’s analyses. First, I show that the patterns in labour productivity growth during the IT era echo those observed during electrification. This includes a slowdown of roughly analogous timing to that observed in 2004-2012 — a slowdown that in the electrification era was followed by a productivity growth acceleration. Second, I discuss the implications of continued divergence in mean and median incomes for the analysis of productivity growth in the long run. Third, I explore further the issue of whether technological progress in semiconductor manufacturing is yielding concomitant increases in semiconductor performance. RÉSUMÉ Je commenterai trois aspects des analyses de Byrne, Oliner et Sichel. Premièrement, je vais démontrer que les tendances en matière de croissance de la productivité du travail en cette ère de la T.I. reflètent la situation en vigueur au moment de l’électrification. Cela inclut un ralentissement à peu près au même moment que celui qu’on a pu observer entre 2004 et 2012 — un ralentissement qui, lors de l’ère de l’électrification, a été suivi d’une accélération de la croissance de la productivité. Deuxièmement, j’aborderai les répercussions de la divergence continuelle en ce qui a trait aux revenus moyen et médian aux fins de l’analyse de la croissance de la productivité à long terme. Troisièmement, j’examinerai de plus près la question de savoir si les innovations technologiques dans le secteur de la fabrication de semi-conducteurs donnent lieu à des augmentations simultanées du rendement des semiconducteurs. THE ARTICLE “Is the Information Technology Dans cet article, je commente trois aspects des analyses de Byrne, Oliner et Sichel. Premièrement, je montre que les tendances de la croissance de la productivité du travail à l’ère des TI font écho à celles observées lors de l’électrification. Cela comprend un ralentissement d’un calendrier approximativement analogue à celui observé en 2004-2012 — un ralentissement qui, à l’ère de l’électrification, a été suivi d’une accélération de la croissance de la productivité. Deuxièmement, j’examine les implications de la divergence persistante entre les revenus moyens et médians pour l’analyse de la croissance de la productivité à long terme. Troisièmement, j’explore davantage la question de savoir si le progrès technologique dans la fabrication des semi-conducteurs se traduit par des augmentations concomitantes des performances des semi-conducteurs. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-25-4-Syverson.pdf)