--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-25/u-s-productivity-growth-an-optimistic-perspective/" title: "U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T07:37:43+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T07:37:43+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Spring 2013" ipm_keyword: - "3D printing" - "big data" - "energy" - "health care" - "innovation" - "manufacturing" - "optimistic outlook" - "productivity" - "robotics" - "United States" ipm_research_theme: - "Productivity trends and comparisons" ipm_country_focus: - "United States" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-25/u-s-productivity-growth-an-optimistic-perspective/ # U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-25-1-Baily-Manyika-Gupta.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Baily, Martin, James Manyika, and Shalabh Gupta. 2013. “U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective.” International Productivity Monitor, No. 25 (Spring 2013): 3–12. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-25/u-s-productivity-growth-an-optimistic-perspective/ ## Authors: - Martin Baily Institute for International Economics - James Manyika McKinsey Global Institute - Shalabh Gupta McKinsey & Company ## IPM Issue 25 Spring 2013 pp. 3–12 ## Related IPM articles [The Relationship between Efficiencies Defenses for Mergers and TFP Growth Robin Shaban Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 82–102](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-relationship-between-efficiencies-defenses-for-mergers-and-tfp-growth/) [Adult Skills and Productivity: New Evidence from PIAAC 2023 Dan Andrews, Balázs Égert, Christine de La Maisonneuve Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 41–63](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/adult-skills-and-productivity-new-evidence-from-piaac-2023/) [The Potential Impact of Pro-competitive Regulatory Reforms on Productivity and Growth in Canada Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Océane Vernerey Fall 2025 | IPM Issue 49 | pp. 3–40](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-49/the-potential-impact-of-pro-competitive-regulatory-reforms-on-productivity-and-growth-in-canada/) [De-industrialization and the Great Productivity Slowdown: What Comes Next? 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The Canadian Experience Tim Sargent Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 39–53](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/how-does-industrial-policy-impact-output-hours-and-productivity-the-canadian-experience/) [Climate Change and Productivity — An Exploration Dirk Pilat Fall 2024 | IPM Issue 47 | pp. 54–86](https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-47/climate-change-and-productivity-an-exploration/) ## Abstract ## Résumé EN FR Copy link Email LinkedIn Recent literature has expressed considerable pessimism about the prospects for both productivity and overall economic growth in the U.S. economy, based either on the idea that the pace of innovation has slowed or on concern that innovation today is hurting job creation. While recognizing the problems facing the economy, this paper offers a more optimistic view of both innovation and future growth, a potential return to the innovation and employment-led growth of the 1990s. Technological opportunities remain strong in advanced manufacturing and the energy revolution will spur new investment, not only in energy extraction, but also in the transportation sector and in energy-intensive manufacturing. Education, health care, infrastructure (construction) and government are large sectors of the economy that have lagged behind in productivity growth historically. This is not because of a lack of opportunities for innovation and change but because of a lack of incentives for change and institutional rigidity. RÉSUMÉ Récemment, la littérature a exprimé un pessimisme considérable en ce qui concerne les perspectives de croissance économique et de croissance de la productivité aux Etats-Unis, soit en soutenant l’idée que le rythme d’innovation a ralenti, soit en soutenant la crainte que, de nos jours, l’innovation nuit à la création d’emplois. Cet article offre une perspective plus optimiste de l’innovation et de la croissance future, en affirmant le retour potentiel de l’innovation et de la croissance tirée par l’emploi des années 1990. Les opportunités au niveau technologique restent fortes dans la fabrication de pointe et la révolution énergétique entrainera de nouveaux investissements, non seulement dans l’extraction des ressources énergétiques, mais également dans le secteur du transport et dans la fabrication à intensité énergétique élevée. L’éducation, les soins de santé, l’infrastructure (construction) et le secteur gouvernemental sont des secteurs vastes de l’économie qui ont historiquement affiché un retard en terme de croissance de la productivité. Ceci n’est pas la conséquence d’un manque d’opportunités pour l’innovation et le changement, mais plutôt la conséquence d’un manque d’incitatifs au changement et de rigidités institutionnelles. 1 La littérature récente a exprimé un pessimisme considérable quant aux perspectives de croissance de la productivité et de l’économie globale aux États-Unis, fondé soit sur l’idée que le rythme de l’innovation a ralenti, soit sur la préoccupation que l’innovation d’aujourd’hui nuit à la création d’emplois. Tout en reconnaissant les problèmes auxquels fait face l’économie, cet article offre une perspective plus optimiste sur l’innovation et la croissance future, envisageant un retour possible à la croissance portée par l’innovation et l’emploi des années 1990. Les opportunités technologiques restent fortes dans la fabrication avancée et la révolution énergétique stimulera de nouveaux investissements non seulement dans l’extraction d’énergie, mais aussi dans le secteur des transports et dans la fabrication à forte intensité énergétique. L’éducation, les soins de santé, les infrastructures et le gouvernement sont de grands secteurs de l’économie qui ont pris du retard en matière de croissance de la productivité, non pas en raison d’un manque d’opportunités technologiques. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-25-1-Baily-Manyika-Gupta.pdf)