--- canonical_url: "https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-24/the-long-term-outlook-for-productivity-and-per-capita-income-growth-for-canada-a-comparison-with-selected-g-20-countries/" title: "The Long-term Outlook for Productivity and Per Capita Income Growth for Canada: A Comparison with Selected G-20 Countries" author: name: "CSLS" url: "https://csls.ca/author/cslc/" date_published: "2026-07-13T07:33:52+00:00" date_modified: "2026-07-13T07:33:52+00:00" post_type: "ipm" summary: "" ipm_issue_period: - "Fall 2012" ipm_keyword: - "Canada" - "demographics" - "G-20" - "long-term outlook" - "OECD" - "potential output" - "product market competition" - "productivity" - "productivity commission" - "tax reform" ipm_research_theme: - "Productivity trends and comparisons" ipm_country_focus: - "Canada" - "G-20" - "International" - "OECD" featured_image: "https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IPM_50_banner.webp" status: "publish" --- # The Long-term Outlook for Productivity and Per Capita Income Growth for Canada: A Comparison with Selected G-20 Countries Canonical URL: https://csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-24/the-long-term-outlook-for-productivity-and-per-capita-income-growth-for-canada-a-comparison-with-selected-g-20-countries/ # The Long-term Outlook for Productivity and Per Capita Income Growth for Canada: A Comparison with Selected G-20 Countries [Download full PDF article](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-24-7-Jarrett.pdf) Cite this article × Cite this article as: Jarrett, Peter. 2012. “The Long-term Outlook for Productivity and Per Capita Income Growth for Canada: A Comparison with Selected G-20 Countries.” International Productivity Monitor, No. 24 (Fall 2012): 85–96. https://www.csls.ca/ipm-archive/ipm-issue-24/the-long-term-outlook-for-productivity-and-per-capita-income-growth-for-canada-a-comparison-with-selected-g-20-countries/ ## Author: - Peter Jarrett Economics Department, OECD ## IPM Issue 24 Fall 2012 pp. 85–96 ## Related IPM articles [Is the SNA Still Useful? 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It compares outcomes for Canada against these countries’ performance in a variety of dimensions that together determine productivity and output growth based on a production-function approach. It concludes that Canada should enjoy reasonable productivity and output growth in the coming half century, despite the less favourable outlook for the age structure of the population. It goes on to suggest three areas where policymakers should focus their attention: seeking more vigorous product market competition; reforming the tax system with a view to removing unnecessary distortions and emphasising the importance of tertiary education and innovation across a broad range of policy areas. It finishes with a call for the establishment of a publicly funded productivity commission, to assess existing policies and proposed changes through a productivity, innovation and competitiveness lens. RÉSUMÉ Cet article décrit un scénario à long terme qui pourrait se produire pour certains pays de l’OCDE et certaines économies de marché émergentes. Il compare les résultats pour le Canada à la performance de ces pays, sous divers rapports qui, ensemble, déterminent la croissance de la production et de la productivité, au moyen d’une démarche production-fonction. Il conclut que la croissance de la production et de la productivité devrait se maintenir raisonnablement bien au Canada au cours du prochain demi-siècle, bien que les perspectives soient moins favorables en ce qui concerne la structure démographique. Il propose ensuite trois domaines auxquels les décideurs devraient prêter attention: favoriser une concurrence plus vigoureuse entre les produits sur les marchés, réformer le système fiscal afin de faire disparaître les distorsions inutiles et mettre l’accent sur l’importance de l’éducation tertiaire et de l’innovation dans un large éventail de domaines stratégiques. Il termine en demandant que soit créé une commission de la productivité financée par les deniers publics qui évaluerait les politiques actuelles et proposerait des changements dans une optique de productivité, d’innovation et de compétitivité. 1 Cet article décrit un scénario possible à long terme pour certains pays de l’OCDE et grandes économies de marché émergentes. Il compare les résultats du Canada à la performance de ces pays selon diverses dimensions qui déterminent ensemble la croissance de la productivité et de la production, à l’aide d’une approche par fonction de production. Il conclut que le Canada devrait bénéficier d’une croissance raisonnable de la productivité et de la production au cours du prochain demi-siècle, malgré les perspectives moins favorables liées à la structure par âge de la population. Il propose ensuite trois domaines sur lesquels les décideurs devraient concentrer leur attention : rechercher une concurrence plus vigoureuse sur les marchés de produits; réformer le système fiscal en vue d’éliminer les distorsions inutiles; et souligner l’importance de l’enseignement supérieur et de l’innovation dans un large éventail de domaines de politique. Il se termine par un appel à la création d’une commission de la productivité financée par des fonds publics. [Download full PDF](https://csls.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IPM-Issue-24-7-Jarrett.pdf)