Conclusions:
The cycle explains 40 % of the total decline in the youth participation rate over the 1990-96 period, i.e. 2.8 percentage points out of the 7.2 percentage point drop.
Our estimates suggest that the cyclical sensitivity of the 15-19 age group participation rate is higher than that of the 20-24 age group, and that the student participation rate is about 4 times more cyclically sensitive than the non-student rate.
Participation rates for young women are also more sensitive to the cycle than participation rates for young men.
Our estimates suggest that 50 out of 100 young people who leave the labour market because of the weakness of the economy go back to school.